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Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation

39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 54.0%Based on 39K games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 54.0%
Outcome Distribution
35.9%35.5%28.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
11...c6
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation
Analyzen=39K
Avg Length44 moves
Sharpness65%
Draw Rate35.5%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 53.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.3% and 54.0%), based on 39K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +20.9% · Breakpoint: 2500+

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.2% · Rapid best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 70% → 4%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 70.4% win rate (12 games)
  • 1000-1199: 60.5% win rate (72 games)
  • 1200-1399: 63.4% win rate (302 games)
  • 1400-1599: 63.9% win rate (1,179 games)
  • 1600-1799: 61.9% win rate (3,806 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.0% win rate (7,665 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.1% win rate (7,747 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.0% win rate (4,257 games)
  • 2500+: 3.7% win rate (13,902 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (43%), worst in Bullet (24%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 24.3% win rate (12,076 games)
  • Blitz: 40.9% win rate (21,586 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (4,844 games)
  • Classical: 25.5% win rate (436 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (132 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (425 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.7% expected score (628 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.8% expected score (119 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (919 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 64.4% expected score (2,423 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (424 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,342 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (5,068 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (1,173 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,313 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (5,010 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (1,360 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (64 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (821 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (2,787 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (628 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (7,064 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (5,516 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (222 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 28.6% (90% CI: 28.3%-29.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (4.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (32.2%) outperforms Classical (19.3%) by 12.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 64.5 (drawish), meaning 64.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 44 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 34.8% (90% CI: 30.3%-39.3%) win rate for white, based on 302 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 33.6% (90% CI: 31.3%-35.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 35.1% (90% CI: 33.9%-36.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 39.5% (90% CI: 38.6%-40.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 5.9% (90% CI: 5.6%-6.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 62 moves with a 90.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 21.1% (90% CI: 20.5%-21.7%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 54.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 32.2% (90% CI: 31.6%-32.7%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 26.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 32.5% (90% CI: 31.4%-33.6%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 24.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a 19.3% (90% CI: 16.3%-22.5%) win rate for white (436 Lichess games). Draw rate is 55.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation is slightly favors black with a 28.6% (90% CI: 28.3%-29.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.