Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation
39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.0%.
Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 35.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 39K
- Best context
- 68.7% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 44 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 64.5%
- Draws
- 35.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 69.5% at 0-999, 49.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (21 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (139 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (132 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (425 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.7% expected score (628 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.8% expected score (119 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (919 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 64.4% expected score (2,423 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (424 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (40 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,342 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (5,068 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (1,173 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.6% expected score (82 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,313 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (5,010 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (1,360 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (64 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (821 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (2,787 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (628 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (7,064 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (5,516 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,100 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (222 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation scores 53.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.3% and 54.0% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation, Black wins 35.9%, draws 35.5% and loses 28.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 65.2% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.4% in Blitz (22K games) against 55.2% in Rapid (4.8K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 64.5 (drawish), meaning 64.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 63.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 34.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.3%. It rests on 302 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 63.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 33.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.2%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 61.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 35.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.4%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 56.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 3.7%, draws 90.4% and loses 5.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 62 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 24.3%, draws 54.6% and loses 21.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 40.9%, draws 26.9% and loses 32.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.9%, draws 24.6% and loses 32.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 25.5%, draws 55.2% and loses 19.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 436 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 35.9% of its games and loses 28.6%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.