Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack
21K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
64.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 64.7%.
Measured over 21K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 21K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 21K
- Best context
- 67.8% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 57.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.7%
- Draws
- 3.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 63.9% at 0-999, 41.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 68.0% expected score (68 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (98 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 81.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 64.1% expected score (293 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (316 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 67.1% expected score (812 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 65.7% expected score (1,392 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (258 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.4% expected score (1,191 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (4,327 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (780 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.7% expected score (40 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 64.5% expected score (1,309 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 64.4% expected score (4,444 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (1,237 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 66.5% expected score (858 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (2,189 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (471 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (235 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (98 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.4% expected score (26 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack scores 64.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 63.5% and 64.7% — from 21K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 21K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack, Black wins 62.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 34.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.1%. It rests on 21K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 66.6% (6.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 64.3% in Blitz (13K games) against 60.4% in Rapid (2.8K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 59.8%, draws 0.8% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 180 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 63.6%, draws 1.4% and loses 35.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.3%. It rests on 668 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 64.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 33.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.8%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 65.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 31.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.6%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 62.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 33.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.3%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 57.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 38.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 49.5%, draws 9.7% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 363 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 64.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 33.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.7%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 62.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 34.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 58.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.4%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 59.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 35.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.0%. It rests on 119 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 62.4% of its games and loses 34.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.