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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation

4.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.8%

45%65%
Floor55.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.1%.

Measured over 4.0K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.0K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
4.0K
Best context
not measured yet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
93.7%
Draws
6.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 63.4% at 0-999, 54.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 92.9% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (89 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (84 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (207 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (133 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (397 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (147 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (155 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (495 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (193 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (466 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (224 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 61.8% expected score (308 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (184 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (72 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (57 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation scores 56.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.6% and 58.1% — from 4.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
4.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation, White wins 53.6%, draws 6.3% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 4.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 59.6% (523 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 57.5% in Blitz (2.2K games) against 58.4% in Rapid (802 games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 204 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 418 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 684 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 54.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 856 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.7%, draws 7.0% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 840 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 56.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 36.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 523 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.4%, draws 9.4% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 332 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.9%, draws 11.9% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 129 Lichess games, which average 47 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 983 Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 53.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 55.2%, draws 6.4% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 802 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.6% of its games and loses 40.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.