Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation
6.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.
Measured over 6.7K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.7K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.7K
- Best context
- 49.3% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.2% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.3% at 0-999, 46.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (55 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (212 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (54 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (113 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (514 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (253 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (124 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (657 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (422 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (160 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (703 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (469 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (114 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (676 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (360 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (76 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (611 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (248 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (124 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (227 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (69 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (72 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (271 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation scores 46.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.1% and 47.1% — from 6.7K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.7K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 6.7K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 48.0% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.7% in Blitz (3.9K games) against 42.8% in Rapid (1.9K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 42.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 322 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 881 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 946 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 423 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 10.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 356 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 868 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 51.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.