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Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation

6.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.1%Range (90% confident): 45.1% – 47.1%Based on 6.7K games
0%46.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.1% – 47.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%4.1%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Ne7
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation
Analyzen=6.7K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 46.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.1% and 47.1%), based on 6.7K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~42%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.2% win rate (322 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.2% win rate (881 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.5% win rate (1,218 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.8% win rate (1,360 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.8% win rate (1,177 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.0% win rate (946 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.5% win rate (423 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (356 games)
  • 2500+: 43.8% win rate (43 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Rapid (40%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (868 games)
  • Blitz: 44.6% win rate (3,883 games)
  • Rapid: 40.2% win rate (1,889 games)
  • Classical: 46.3% win rate (86 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (113 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (514 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (657 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (422 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (703 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (469 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (676 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (360 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (248 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (227 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (72 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (271 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.5% win rate for white (322 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.7%) outperforms Classical (48.6%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 50.9%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 322 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.9%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 881 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 946 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 423 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 42.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 356 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-51.4%) win rate for white (868 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.6%) win rate for white (3.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 52.8%-56.5%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.