Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation
22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
42.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.2%.
Measured over 22K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 22K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 22K
- Best context
- 44.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 38.7% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.8% at 0-999, 35.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.5% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (111 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (80 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (315 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (325 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (768 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (1,172 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (220 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (1,050 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (3,016 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (686 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (47 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (1,165 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (4,181 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (1,390 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (65 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (951 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (2,985 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,017 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (35 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (841 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (1,185 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (207 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (263 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.3% expected score (185 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation scores 42.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.1% and 43.2% — from 22K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 22K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation, Black wins 40.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 22K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 43.7% (5.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 42.7% in Blitz (13K games) against 41.8% in Rapid (3.7K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 40.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 215 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 704 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.8%, draws 5.7% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 26.5%, draws 23.2% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.1%. It rests on 518 Lichess games, which average 57 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 40.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.6%, draws 9.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 169 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Kholmov Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.1% of its games and loses 54.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.