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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation

529K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.4%Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 45.5%Based on 529K games
0%45.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 45.5%
Outcome Distribution
43.3%4.2%52.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...f6
Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation
Analyzen=529K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 45.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.3% and 45.5%), based on 529K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.0% win rate (43,876 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.6% win rate (116,443 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.2% win rate (156,960 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.0% win rate (121,118 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.6% win rate (59,943 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.9% win rate (23,960 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.6% win rate (5,596 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.1% win rate (1,056 games)
  • 2500+: 34.3% win rate (134 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.0% win rate (110 games)
  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (78,510 games)
  • Blitz: 43.6% win rate (292,357 games)
  • Rapid: 42.2% win rate (152,353 games)
  • Classical: 38.9% win rate (5,756 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (11,209 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (24,172 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (8,416 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (20,109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (70,879 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (25,103 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (316 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (19,605 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (89,092 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (47,040 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (1,194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (13,755 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (61,116 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (43,835 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (2,391 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (7,412 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (30,585 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (20,475 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (1,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (4,254 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (13,272 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (6,149 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (283 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (1,456 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (2,882 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (602 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (336 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (115 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 529K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (5.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.9%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 157K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 121K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.0%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 53.2%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-60.5%) win rate for white, based on 134 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 12.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 41.1%-56.6%) win rate for white (110 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.0%) win rate for white (79K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.3%) win rate for white (292K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.4%) win rate for white (152K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 54.9%-57.1%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Nürnberg Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.