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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation

392K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.2%

45%60%
Floor53.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.4%.

Measured over 392K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 392K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
392K
Best context
57.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
47.1% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 54.8% at 0-999, 58.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,800 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (16,470 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (12,917 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (184 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (11,813 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (30,578 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (14,873 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (497 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (13,501 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (43,940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (21,752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (828 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (12,576 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (42,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (24,392 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (1,731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (9,517 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (33,142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (18,200 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (1,319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (6,105 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (22,396 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (10,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (567 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,742 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (11,607 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (4,538 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (6,513 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (1,316 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (1,433 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (63 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 53.4% — from 392K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
392K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 392K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.7% (3.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (209K games) against 52.8% in Rapid (108K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 81K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.1%, draws 7.7% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.2%, draws 8.9% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 69K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 209K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 108K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Tarrasch Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.1% of its games and loses 44.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.