Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation
1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.8%.
Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.1M
- Best context
- 62.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 51.2% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 55.2% at 0-999, 63.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (8,529 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (10,561 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (3,216 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (22,336 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (33,266 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (9,659 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (134 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (36,737 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (69,415 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (22,963 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (497 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (47,398 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (109,883 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (38,005 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (1,604 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (51,377 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (138,635 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (46,782 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (2,332 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (47,056 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (141,445 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (42,350 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (1,780 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (33,700 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (69,199 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (17,688 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (420 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (20,187 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (16,366 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (2,184 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 77.0% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (4,406 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.8% expected score (884 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.9% expected score (70 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 53.8% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (5.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.6% in Blitz (590K games) against 55.5% in Rapid (183K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 130K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 197K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 239K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 233K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 121K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.7%, draws 8.5% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 272K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 590K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 53.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 183K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 55.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.9% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.