9.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.1% and 48.8%), based on 9.5K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~48%)
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (827 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (52.2%) outperforms Bullet (48.7%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 381 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 827 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 41.3%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 556 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.9%-50.4%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-53.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-62.8%) win rate for white (110 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.