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Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit

9.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.

Measured over 9.5K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.5K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.5K
Best context
49.9% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Worst context
45.1% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.1 · Trap factor: +6.2 · 9.5K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.1% at 0-999, 51.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (88 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (214 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (151 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (455 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (216 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (254 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (562 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (379 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (309 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (754 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (501 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,001 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (428 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (393 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (1,142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (574 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (169 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit scores 47.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.1% and 48.8% — from 9.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 9.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (556 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (5.0K games) against 45.6% in Rapid (2.2K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 381 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 827 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.1%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 556 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 110 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Konikowski Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 50.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.