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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense

108K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score42.1%Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 42.3%Based on 108K games
0%42.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 42.3%
Outcome Distribution
40.0%4.1%55.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Bb4
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
Analyzen=108K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 42.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.8% and 42.3%), based on 108K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.8% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 40% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.6% win rate (25,664 games)
  • 1000-1199: 37.7% win rate (22,382 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.1% win rate (20,743 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.1% win rate (16,766 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.2% win rate (9,968 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.7% win rate (5,484 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (3,363 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.3% win rate (2,965 games)
  • 2500+: 45.0% win rate (615 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (44%), worst in Classical (32%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.9% win rate (95 games)
  • Bullet: 43.8% win rate (24,018 games)
  • Blitz: 40.7% win rate (48,587 games)
  • Rapid: 36.7% win rate (33,226 games)
  • Classical: 31.6% win rate (2,024 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (3,794 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (10,030 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (11,658 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (162 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (4,289 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (9,852 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (7,800 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (417 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (4,313 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (9,628 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (6,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.9% expected score (477 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (4,109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (8,042 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (4,034 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,964 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (4,507 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (2,139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (354 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,372 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (3,344 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 24.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,364 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,553 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (439 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,338 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,500 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (475 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (131 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 18.5% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (1)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 108K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 58.5% win rate for white (22K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (63.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (59.6%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 58.5% (90% CI: 57.9%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.9%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.1%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 10.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 615 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.3%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.4%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 58.3% (90% CI: 57.9%-58.8%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a 63.6% (90% CI: 61.8%-65.4%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense is statistically favors white with a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.