Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense

108K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...Bb4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

42.1%

35%55%
Floor41.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.3%.

Measured over 108K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 108K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
108K
Best context
51.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
29.5% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.8% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 42.9% at 0-999, 36.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (3,794 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (10,030 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (11,658 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (162 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (4,289 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (9,852 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (7,800 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (417 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (4,313 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (9,628 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (6,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.9% expected score (477 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (4,109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (8,042 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (4,034 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,964 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (4,507 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (2,139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (354 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,372 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (3,344 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 24.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,364 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,553 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (439 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (1,338 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,500 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (475 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (131 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 18.5% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Continuations (1)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense scores 42.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.8% and 42.3% — from 108K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
108K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Black wins 40.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 108K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (3.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 42.9% in Blitz (49K games) against 39.2% in Rapid (33K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 39.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 37.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 39.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 615 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 40.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 36.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 58.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.2%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 31.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 63.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.0%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.0% of its games and loses 55.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.