Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense
827K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.7%.
Measured over 827K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 827K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 827K
- Best context
- 52.9% at 0-999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 36.7% at 2500+ Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.0% at 0-999, 41.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (10,764 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (19,107 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (13,345 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (182 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (19,473 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (36,352 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (16,153 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (477 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (26,076 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (57,307 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (26,177 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (1,013 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (28,594 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (66,421 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (34,812 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (2,193 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (26,622 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (75,726 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (34,394 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (2,692 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (24,020 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (83,577 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (33,089 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (2,262 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (20,779 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (61,902 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (21,002 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (890 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (17,769 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (38,751 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (8,371 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (162 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (8,176 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (7,650 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (747 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (52 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 47.7% — from 827K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 827K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Black wins 45.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 827K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.8% (43K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.5% in Blitz (447K games) against 46.9% in Rapid (188K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 111K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 139K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 143K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.4%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.5%, draws 12.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.1%, draws 0.3% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 148 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 182K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 447K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 188K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.4% of its games and loses 50.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.