Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation
30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.1%.
Measured over 30K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 30K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 30K
- Best context
- 58.6% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.4% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.3% at 0-999, 59.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (390 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (738 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (481 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (597 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,455 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (655 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (722 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,022 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,109 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (577 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,795 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (1,264 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (95 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (609 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,343 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (908 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (105 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (558 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (1,342 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (563 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (48 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (718 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (2,571 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (594 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,578 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (4,916 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (288 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (677 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (923 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.1% and 53.1% — from 30K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 30K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 30K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.4% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (17K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (5.9K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 7.7% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 9.3% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 42.7%, draws 9.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 325 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Bayreuth Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.