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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit

64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.4%

45%60%
Floor54.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.7%.

Measured over 64K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 64K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
64K
Best context
57.0% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
47.8% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.4% · Breakpoint: 2500+

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.3% at 0-999, 62.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (788 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,471 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (537 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (1,976 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,915 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (2,944 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (4,962 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,367 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (6,846 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (2,464 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (3,867 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (7,128 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,800 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (2,783 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (6,243 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (2,384 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,599 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (3,260 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (854 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (540 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit scores 54.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.0% and 54.7% — from 64K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
64K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 64K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 55.4% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.4% in Blitz (33K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (12K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 53.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 54.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 46.2%, draws 7.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 149 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.6%, draws 2.1% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 523 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.7% of its games and loses 44.0%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.