Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit
9.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
38.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.0%.
Measured over 9.2K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.2K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 9.2K
- Best context
- 42.0% at 0-999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 33.9% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Average game length
- 27 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.6% at 0-999, 40.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (275 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (513 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (223 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (371 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (1,011 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (453 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (356 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (1,091 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (843 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 18.3% expected score (30 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (345 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (859 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.5% expected score (778 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.0% expected score (58 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (260 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.9% expected score (465 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (445 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (56 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (131 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (199 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 30.8% expected score (173 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 18.9% expected score (21 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (74 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 34.1% expected score (55 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (45 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 22.8% expected score (15 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit scores 38.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 37.4% and 39.0% — from 9.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 9.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit, Black wins 36.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 60.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.2%. It rests on 9.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 40.7% (1.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 38.4% in Blitz (4.2K games) against 34.6% in Rapid (3.0K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit?
The Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 39.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.7%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 37.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 60.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 35.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 61.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 36.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 60.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 36.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 60.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 36.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 60.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.3%. It rests on 524 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 33.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 62.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.6%. It rests on 176 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.0% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 36.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 60.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.4%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 32.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 63.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.6%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 25.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 72.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 26.4%. It rests on 176 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 36.7% of its games and loses 60.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.