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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit

9.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score38.2%Range (90% confident): 37.4% – 39.0%Based on 9.2K games
0%38.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 37.4% – 39.0%
Outcome Distribution
36.7%2.9%60.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...d5
Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit
Analyzen=9.2K
Avg Length27 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 38.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 37.4% and 39.0%), based on 9.2K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -26.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 17.9% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 39% → 27%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.1% win rate (1,012 games)
  • 1000-1199: 37.2% win rate (1,843 games)
  • 1200-1399: 35.9% win rate (2,320 games)
  • 1400-1599: 36.5% win rate (2,040 games)
  • 1600-1799: 36.0% win rate (1,226 games)
  • 1800-1999: 36.8% win rate (524 games)
  • 2000-2199: 33.5% win rate (176 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.2% win rate (60 games)
  • 2500+: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (44%), worst in Classical (25%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 43.5% win rate (1,852 games)
  • Blitz: 36.8% win rate (4,209 games)
  • Rapid: 32.9% win rate (2,968 games)
  • Classical: 25.1% win rate (176 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (275 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (513 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (223 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (371 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (453 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (356 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (1,091 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 18.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (345 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (859 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.5% expected score (778 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (260 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.9% expected score (465 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (445 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 30.8% expected score (173 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 18.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 34.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 22.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 60.4% (90% CI: 59.5%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 61.5% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (72.4%) outperforms Bullet (54.5%) by 17.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 57.7% (90% CI: 55.1%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 60.1% (90% CI: 58.2%-62.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 61.5% (90% CI: 59.8%-63.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 60.4% (90% CI: 58.6%-62.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 60.7% (90% CI: 58.3%-62.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 60.2% (90% CI: 56.7%-63.7%) win rate for white, based on 524 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 62.3% (90% CI: 56.2%-68.1%) win rate for white, based on 176 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 52.6%-56.4%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 60.0% (90% CI: 58.8%-61.2%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 63.8% (90% CI: 62.3%-65.2%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit has a 72.4% (90% CI: 66.7%-77.8%) win rate for white (176 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Central Countergambit is statistically favors white with a 60.4% (90% CI: 59.5%-61.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.