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Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

37.2%

30%55%
Floor36.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 38.0%.

Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
11K
Best context
38.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Worst context
30.7% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.2% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 32.9% at 0-999, 51.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (296 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (732 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.4% expected score (681 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (357 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (1,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.4% expected score (618 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (1,338 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.7% expected score (732 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (404 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.9% expected score (750 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (470 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 14.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.1% expected score (254 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (553 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (436 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 32.5% expected score (172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 28.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation scores 37.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 36.5% and 38.0% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation, Black wins 35.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 61.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 39.4% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 37.7% in Blitz (5.3K games) against 34.1% in Rapid (3.3K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 34.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 60.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 35.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 61.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.8%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 34.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 61.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.5%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 35.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 61.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 37.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 36.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 58.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.0%. It rests on 707 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 31.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 65.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.5%. It rests on 370 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 36.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.3%. It rests on 203 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 35.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 60.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.7%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 31.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 63.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.1%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 25.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 69.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 28.2%. It rests on 223 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Retreat Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 35.4% of its games and loses 61.0%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.