Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation
384K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.8%.
Measured over 384K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 384K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 384K
- Best context
- 59.3% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 52.2% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.7% at 0-999, 57.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (5,069 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (9,402 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (3,874 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (9,728 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (22,999 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (9,162 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (127 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (11,301 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (30,069 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (14,862 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (479 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (13,073 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (31,501 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (16,665 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (887 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (13,985 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (34,398 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (13,045 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (819 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (13,034 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (37,633 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (11,336 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (602 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (10,012 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (28,760 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (6,488 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (168 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (10,196 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (16,407 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (2,190 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (61 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (3,264 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (2,494 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.9% expected score (165 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 53.8% — from 384K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 384K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 384K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.2% (5.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.3% in Blitz (214K games) against 54.1% in Rapid (78K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.4%, draws 7.3% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.6%, draws 11.2% and loses 38.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 90K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 214K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 78K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.3% of its games and loses 43.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.