Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation
16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.4%.
Measured over 16K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 16K
- Best context
- 52.4% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.8% at 0-999, 45.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (56 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (99 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (52 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (160 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (286 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (136 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (279 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (386 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (219 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (333 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (650 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (273 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (345 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (963 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (290 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (641 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,922 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (457 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (36 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (841 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (2,631 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (448 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,220 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,646 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (210 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (316 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (342 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation scores 49.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 50.4% — from 16K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 16K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation, Black wins 46.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 16K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (3.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.7% in Blitz (9.9K games) against 53.9% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 208 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 586 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 888 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.9%, draws 7.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.8%, draws 11.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 677 Lichess games, which average 47 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 50.9%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 49.3%, draws 10.8% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 105 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.