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Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.7%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 50.4%Based on 16K games
0%49.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 50.4%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%5.9%47.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Qd6
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 49.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 50.4%), based on 16K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.1% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (208 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.6% win rate (586 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.6% win rate (888 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (1,270 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.7% win rate (1,618 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.8% win rate (3,056 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.2% win rate (3,935 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.9% win rate (4,083 games)
  • 2500+: 37.8% win rate (677 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (51%), worst in Bullet (45%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.2% win rate (4,191 games)
  • Blitz: 46.5% win rate (9,925 games)
  • Rapid: 50.9% win rate (2,100 games)
  • Classical: 49.3% win rate (105 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (56 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (52 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (160 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (286 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (279 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (386 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (219 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (333 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (650 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (273 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (963 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (290 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (641 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,922 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (457 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (841 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (2,631 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (448 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,220 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,646 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (210 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (316 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (342 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (39.9%) by 10.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 208 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 42.3%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 586 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 888 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.6%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 677 Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 11.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.3%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (9.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 41.4%-44.9%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 39.9% (90% CI: 32.2%-47.8%) win rate for white (105 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Bronstein Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.