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Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit

67K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 52.3%Based on 67K games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 52.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%5.4%45.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...h5
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit
Analyzen=67K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 51.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 52.3%), based on 67K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +44.7% · Breakpoint: 2000-2199

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 72% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 71.8% win rate (279 games)
  • 1000-1199: 73.5% win rate (1,063 games)
  • 1200-1399: 68.9% win rate (2,365 games)
  • 1400-1599: 63.5% win rate (4,332 games)
  • 1600-1799: 57.7% win rate (8,382 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.4% win rate (15,276 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (17,766 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.5% win rate (14,951 games)
  • 2500+: 36.0% win rate (2,416 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (55%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (17,902 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (40,244 games)
  • Rapid: 54.5% win rate (8,271 games)
  • Classical: 52.5% win rate (411 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 73.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 73.6% expected score (145 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 84.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 71.7% expected score (366 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 77.5% expected score (536 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 74.0% expected score (161 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (727 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 74.3% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 73.3% expected score (415 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (1,173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (2,185 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 72.6% expected score (931 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (2,269 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (4,599 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (1,426 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 66.8% expected score (88 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (3,205 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (9,811 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (2,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,425 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (12,152 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,120 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (5,243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (8,624 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (1,053 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (1,386 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (975 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 67K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.3% win rate for white (2.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.2%) outperforms Classical (39.6%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 22.3% (90% CI: 18.3%-26.5%) win rate for white, based on 279 Lichess games. Average game length is 20 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 23.5% (90% CI: 21.4%-25.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 28.6% (90% CI: 27.1%-30.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 34.0% (90% CI: 32.9%-35.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 38.8% (90% CI: 37.9%-39.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 54.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.7%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.6%) win rate for white (40K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 40.2% (90% CI: 39.3%-41.1%) win rate for white (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit has a 39.6% (90% CI: 35.7%-43.6%) win rate for white (411 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alapin Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.