Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation
660K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 41.9%.
Measured over 660K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 660K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 660K
- Best context
- 44.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 38.4% at 1000-1199 Classical
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 42.4% at 0-999, 39.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (18,528 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (55,367 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (28,906 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (225 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (24,225 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (95,041 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (49,175 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (1,001 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (20,924 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (92,120 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (58,352 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (2,369 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 20.8% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (14,232 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (59,174 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (44,770 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (3,092 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (8,803 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (27,090 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (20,798 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (1,361 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (5,220 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (10,925 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (6,803 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (350 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (2,385 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (3,626 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (1,465 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (1,423 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (1,177 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (160 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (309 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (115 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation scores 41.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.7% and 41.9% — from 660K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 660K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation, Black wins 39.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 660K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 42.9% (103K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 42.1% in Blitz (345K games) against 41.0% in Rapid (210K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 40.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 103K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 39.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 169K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 39.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 174K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 39.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 121K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 39.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.0%. It rests on 432 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 41.7%, draws 0.4% and loses 57.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 110 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 96K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 345K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 210K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 36.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.9%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.6% of its games and loses 56.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.