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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation

7.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.9%Based on 7.0K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 48.9%
Outcome Distribution
43.3%9.2%47.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Bd6
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation
Analyzen=7.0K
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 48.9%), based on 7.0K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 63% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.3% win rate (23 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.0% win rate (164 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.2% win rate (489 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (940 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.9% win rate (1,186 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.7% win rate (1,481 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.4% win rate (1,398 games)
  • 2200-2499: 37.2% win rate (1,206 games)
  • 2500+: 32.2% win rate (152 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in Blitz (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 42.6% win rate (1,320 games)
  • Blitz: 42.5% win rate (4,615 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (1,052 games)
  • Classical: 55.1% win rate (52 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (75 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (80 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (157 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (586 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (706 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (248 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (251 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (989 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (229 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (213 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (966 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (896 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (86 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.2% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (79 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.1% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (40.2%) by 9.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 90.8 (decisive), meaning 90.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 164 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 489 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 940 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.0%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 11.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 13.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 152 Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 17.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-52.2%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.8%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 41.9%-46.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Alekhine Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.