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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.2%

40%55%
Floor44.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.6%.

Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
41K
Best context
48.8% at 0-999 Blitz
Worst context
39.5% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
94.6%
Draws
5.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.4% at 0-999, 38.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (473 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (645 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (214 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,992 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (637 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,476 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (3,810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,887 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (5,167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,051 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,762 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (1,894 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (3,788 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (1,674 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (525 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 19.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (616 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (655 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (209 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation scores 45.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.8% and 45.6% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation, Black wins 42.5%, draws 5.4% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.2% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.2% in Blitz (23K games) against 44.3% in Rapid (8.0K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.4%, draws 7.4% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.2%, draws 8.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 291 Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.2%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 402 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.5% of its games and loses 52.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.