Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred
16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.9%.
Measured over 16K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 16K
- Best context
- 50.4% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.0% at 0-999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.4% at 0-999, 42.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (270 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (709 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (358 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (409 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,391 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (686 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (450 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,036 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (1,156 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.4% expected score (29 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (422 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,805 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,545 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (88 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (327 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,373 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (1,043 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (99 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (188 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (553 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (471 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (58 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (137 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.1% expected score (121 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 27.2% expected score (27 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 33.7% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred scores 46.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.6% and 46.9% — from 16K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 16K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 16K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 47.3% (2.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.9% in Blitz (8.0K games) against 46.2% in Rapid (5.4K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred?
The Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 38.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 318 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 257 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.8% of its games and loses 52.2%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.