TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 49.9%Based on 12K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 49.9%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%5.4%48.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...g6
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 49.9%), based on 12K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~43%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.0% win rate (230 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.5% win rate (404 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.5% win rate (648 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.0% win rate (781 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.8% win rate (1,224 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (1,643 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (2,160 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.4% win rate (2,678 games)
  • 2500+: 41.7% win rate (1,742 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (2,324 games)
  • Blitz: 46.4% win rate (7,368 games)
  • Rapid: 44.5% win rate (1,701 games)
  • Classical: 40.9% win rate (117 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (117 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (77 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (236 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (115 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (72 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (371 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (190 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (434 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (247 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (264 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (692 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (255 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (282 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,027 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (305 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (225 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,637 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (513 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,918 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (229 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (799 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (936 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (781 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.2%) outperforms Classical (49.4%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 53.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 230 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 54.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 404 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 648 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.8%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 781 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.0%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.8%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-53.2%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred has a 49.4% (90% CI: 41.8%-56.9%) win rate for white (117 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Fianchetto Defense Deferred is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.