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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System

39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.0%

40%55%
Floor45.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.4%.

Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 8.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
39K
Best context
50.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
42.6% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
91.9%
Draws
8.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.7% at 0-999, 41.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (106 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (359 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (458 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (905 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (1,475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (317 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,127 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (3,480 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (878 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,417 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (5,458 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (5,823 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,662 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,850 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (5,715 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (839 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (1,502 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (206 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.9% expected score (34 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System scores 46.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.6% and 46.4% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System, Black wins 41.9%, draws 8.1% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.9% (8.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (24K games) against 45.1% in Rapid (5.7K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System has a sharpness score of 91.9 (decisive), meaning 91.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 274 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 40.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 915 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 8.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 26.1%, draws 35.5% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 55 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 40.9%, draws 9.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.7%, draws 7.3% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.4%, draws 9.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 34.8%, draws 19.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 336 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Flohr System is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.9% of its games and loses 50.0%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.