TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred

5.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score39.3%Range (90% confident): 38.2% – 40.3%Based on 5.5K games
0%39.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 38.2% – 40.3%
Outcome Distribution
37.7%3.1%59.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bb4
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred
Analyzen=5.5K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 39.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 38.2% and 40.3%), based on 5.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.9% · Classical best · Blitz worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 39% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.0% win rate (1,209 games)
  • 1000-1199: 36.2% win rate (1,051 games)
  • 1200-1399: 36.6% win rate (1,105 games)
  • 1400-1599: 35.5% win rate (1,060 games)
  • 1600-1799: 38.4% win rate (586 games)
  • 1800-1999: 35.0% win rate (254 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.8% win rate (125 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (150 games)
  • 2500+: 52.9% win rate (7 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (41%), worst in Classical (30%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 41.1% win rate (717 games)
  • Blitz: 40.1% win rate (2,688 games)
  • Rapid: 33.7% win rate (2,008 games)
  • Classical: 29.9% win rate (134 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (139 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (480 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (577 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.9% expected score (446 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (420 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 22.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (580 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (374 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.5% expected score (142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.9% expected score (540 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (335 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (282 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 33.0% expected score (207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 33.4% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (137 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 59.2% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 61.9% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (62.5%) outperforms Bullet (57.4%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 57.1% (90% CI: 54.8%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 61.2% (90% CI: 58.8%-63.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 60.3% (90% CI: 57.9%-62.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 61.9% (90% CI: 59.5%-64.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 59.5% (90% CI: 56.1%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 586 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 59.7% (90% CI: 54.6%-64.7%) win rate for white, based on 254 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 44.7% (90% CI: 37.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 44.6% (90% CI: 38.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 150 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 57.4% (90% CI: 54.4%-60.4%) win rate for white (717 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 56.9% (90% CI: 55.3%-58.4%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 62.5% (90% CI: 60.7%-64.2%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a 66.8% (90% CI: 60.0%-73.3%) win rate for white (134 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred is statistically favors white with a 59.2% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.