Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred
5.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
39.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 40.3%.
Measured over 5.5K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.5K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.5K
- Best context
- 41.1% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 37.6% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.9%
- Draws
- 3.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.3% at 0-999, 57.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (139 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (480 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (577 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (163 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.9% expected score (446 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (420 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 22.3% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (130 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (580 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (374 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.5% expected score (142 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.9% expected score (540 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (335 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (43 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (282 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 33.0% expected score (207 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (26 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 33.4% expected score (131 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (71 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (88 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (137 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred scores 39.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 38.2% and 40.3% — from 5.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred, Black wins 37.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 59.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.3%. It rests on 5.5K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.6% (125 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 41.6% in Blitz (2.7K games) against 35.6% in Rapid (2.0K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 39.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 36.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 36.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 60.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 35.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 61.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 38.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 59.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 586 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 35.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 59.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.7%. It rests on 254 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 125 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 7.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 150 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 717 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 40.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 33.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 62.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.6%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 29.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 66.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.6%. It rests on 134 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Alapin's Defense Deferred is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 37.7% of its games and loses 59.2%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.