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Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Nxe5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

38.3%

30%55%
Floor37.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 38.9%.

Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
15K
Best context
45.7% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
34.1% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
26 moves
Games that end decisively
97.2%
Draws
2.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −22.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.7% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.3% at 0-999, 40.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 29.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (1,146 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.6% expected score (1,629 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (1,184 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,122 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (1,715 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (882 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 25.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (913 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (1,398 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (796 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.1% expected score (928 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 20.7% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (478 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (581 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (224 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (297 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 21.7% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 33.1% expected score (84 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 19.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack scores 38.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 37.6% and 38.9% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack, White wins 36.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 60.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.3%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 40.4% (3.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 36.2% in Blitz (6.7K games) against 35.1% in Rapid (3.6K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack?

The Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 35.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 60.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.5%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 37.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 39.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 35.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 62.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.6%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 35.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 62.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 37.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 60.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 708 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 32.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 64.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.3%. It rests on 246 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 46.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 100 Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 42.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 34.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 62.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.2%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 33.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 63.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.1%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 28.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 66.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.2%. It rests on 139 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Halloween Attack is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 36.9% of its games and loses 60.4%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.