Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred
170K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.4%.
Measured over 170K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 170K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 170K
- Best context
- 49.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.9% at 0-999, 39.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (864 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (877 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (394 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (2,363 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (3,261 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (894 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (3,924 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (8,296 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (2,355 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (5,719 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (15,192 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (4,923 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (245 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (5,691 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (22,460 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (8,129 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (497 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (4,908 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (22,878 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (10,466 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (667 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (3,711 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (15,139 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (6,407 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (264 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (3,111 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (9,451 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (2,061 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (35 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,430 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,762 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (203 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 14.7% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred scores 46.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.4% — from 170K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 170K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 170K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.8% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.2% in Blitz (100K games) against 45.5% in Rapid (36K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 6.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.4%, draws 11.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 47 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 100K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.6%, draws 8.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Steinitz Deferred is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.8% of its games and loses 51.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.