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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation

49K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.9%

45%60%
Floor54.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.3%.

Measured over 49K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 49K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
49K
Best context
58.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
53.0% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 58.8%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (208 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (247 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (432 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (654 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (813 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,437 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (374 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (1,301 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (3,480 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (831 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,734 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (7,502 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (131 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,213 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (10,245 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.8% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (8,460 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,203 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (744 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (739 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation scores 54.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.5% and 55.3% — from 49K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
49K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation, White wins 52.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 49K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 55.9% (5.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.0% in Blitz (33K games) against 53.3% in Rapid (6.0K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 54.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 144 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 503 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 53.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.0%, draws 10.5% and loses 38.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 48 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.8%, draws 7.0% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.1%, draws 10.1% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 311 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.3% of its games and loses 42.5%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.