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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation

49K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.9%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 55.3%Based on 49K games
0%54.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 55.3%
Outcome Distribution
52.3%5.2%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.c3
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation
Analyzen=49K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 54.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 55.3%), based on 49K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.6% win rate (144 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.4% win rate (503 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.3% win rate (1,283 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (2,647 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.9% win rate (5,660 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.2% win rate (10,913 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.4% win rate (14,298 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.5% win rate (12,137 games)
  • 2500+: 51.0% win rate (1,551 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 53.8% win rate (9,956 games)
  • Blitz: 52.3% win rate (32,825 games)
  • Rapid: 49.8% win rate (6,043 games)
  • Classical: 50.1% win rate (311 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (208 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (247 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (432 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (654 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (813 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,437 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (374 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (1,301 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (3,480 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (831 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,734 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (7,502 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (131 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,213 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (10,245 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.8% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (8,460 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,203 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (744 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (739 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 49K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (5.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.8%) outperforms Classical (50.1%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-61.4%) win rate for white, based on 144 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 48 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.9%-54.6%) win rate for white (10.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.8%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.9%) win rate for white (6.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-54.7%) win rate for white (311 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Pilnik Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.