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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense

970K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.0%

40%55%
Floor45.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.1%.

Measured over 970K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 970K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
970K
Best context
50.5% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
37.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.1% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.4% at 0-999, 38.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (8,619 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (8,612 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,442 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (23,764 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (31,850 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (10,008 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (172 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (37,914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (67,558 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (23,343 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (563 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (48,361 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (104,117 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (37,667 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (1,752 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (49,999 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (130,497 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (44,839 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (2,387 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (43,710 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (118,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (41,893 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (1,948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (27,242 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (53,403 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (18,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (426 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (12,560 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (10,966 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (2,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (1,864 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (311 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense scores 46.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.9% and 46.1% — from 970K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
970K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 970K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.4% (21K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.8% in Blitz (526K games) against 45.5% in Rapid (182K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 129K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 192K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 228K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 206K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 36.4%, draws 8.9% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 55.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 127 Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 254K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 526K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 182K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Improved Steinitz Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.8% of its games and loses 51.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.