Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation
2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.5%.
Measured over 2.8K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 9.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.8K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.8K
- Best context
- 47.6% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.1% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 90.6%
- Draws
- 9.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 37.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (68 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (64 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (250 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (94 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (737 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (133 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (142 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (684 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (82 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.9% expected score (144 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (165 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.1% expected score (32 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation scores 47.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.4% and 48.5% — from 2.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation, Black wins 42.3%, draws 9.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (370 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.5% in Blitz (1.9K games) against 47.1% in Rapid (323 games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation has a sharpness score of 90.6 (decisive), meaning 90.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 105 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 370 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 972 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.5%, draws 9.1% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 910 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 25.3%, draws 27.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.9%. It rests on 345 Lichess games, which average 58 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 38.6%, draws 12.0% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 484 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.2%, draws 8.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.4%, draws 9.4% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 323 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Italian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.3% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.