TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred

298K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.9%Based on 298K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
45.7%4.0%50.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bc5
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred
Analyzen=298K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 47.9%), based on 298K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~45%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.8% win rate (5,892 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (14,883 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.8% win rate (29,350 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (51,066 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (65,181 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (65,335 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.4% win rate (40,842 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (20,278 games)
  • 2500+: 43.9% win rate (5,512 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (50,691 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (174,556 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (69,824 games)
  • Classical: 42.1% win rate (3,266 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (1,567 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (2,703 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,607 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (3,939 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (7,597 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (3,269 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (78 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (6,207 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (16,112 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (6,842 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (9,331 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (28,869 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (12,213 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (652 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (9,127 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (38,321 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (16,721 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (8,038 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (39,627 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (16,718 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (952 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (5,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (25,112 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9,977 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (322 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (4,542 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (13,304 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (2,392 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,509 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (2,911 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 298K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.2%) outperforms Blitz (49.8%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.8%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (175K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white (70K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.4%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Classical Defense Deferred is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.