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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation

272K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.4%

40%55%
Floor44.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.6%.

Measured over 272K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 272K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
272K
Best context
49.1% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
38.4% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.0% at 0-999, 43.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,218 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,907 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (5,139 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (8,935 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (3,708 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (75 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (8,037 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (19,066 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (7,977 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.5% expected score (219 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (9,913 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (28,889 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (13,358 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (714 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (9,587 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (33,720 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (15,206 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (1,156 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (8,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (31,010 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (13,396 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (886 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (5,953 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (16,430 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5,996 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,901 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (6,470 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (1,398 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (3,184 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,799 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.1% expected score (219 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation scores 44.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.3% and 44.6% — from 272K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
272K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 272K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation performs best for Black at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 48.4% (5.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.4% in Blitz (149K games) against 44.1% in Rapid (63K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 27.0%, draws 42.6% and loses 30.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 52 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 56K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 149K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 63K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 37.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.2% of its games and loses 53.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.