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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation

272K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.4%Range (90% confident): 44.3% – 44.6%Based on 272K games
0%44.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.3% – 44.6%
Outcome Distribution
42.2%4.4%53.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bc5
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation
Analyzen=272K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 44.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.3% and 44.6%), based on 272K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 27%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (6,894 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.1% win rate (17,859 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.5% win rate (35,304 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.5% win rate (52,883 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.4% win rate (59,669 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.7% win rate (53,681 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.6% win rate (28,601 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.2% win rate (11,811 games)
  • 2500+: 27.0% win rate (5,243 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (62%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 62.2% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 42.5% win rate (56,320 games)
  • Blitz: 42.4% win rate (149,226 games)
  • Rapid: 41.7% win rate (63,003 games)
  • Classical: 37.5% win rate (3,379 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,218 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,907 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (5,139 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (8,935 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (3,708 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (75 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (8,037 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (19,066 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (7,977 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.5% expected score (219 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (9,913 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (28,889 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (13,358 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (714 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (9,587 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (33,720 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (15,206 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (1,156 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (8,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (31,010 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (13,396 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (886 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (5,953 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (16,430 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5,996 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,901 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (6,470 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (1,398 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (3,184 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,799 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.1% expected score (219 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 272K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 54.3% win rate for white (53K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.7%) outperforms Bullet (52.2%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 30.3% (90% CI: 29.3%-31.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 52 moves with a 42.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.6%) win rate for white (56K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.9%) win rate for white (149K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.9%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.3%-57.1%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Neo-Arkhangelsk Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.