Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation
2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.9%.
Measured over 2.2K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.2K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.2K
- Best context
- 49.6% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 43 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.3%
- Draws
- 7.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 30.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 33.6% expected score (44 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (185 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (95 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (559 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (74 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (216 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (666 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (52 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 33.6% expected score (32 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (98 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 10.9% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.4% and 48.9% — from 2.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation, Black wins 43.3%, draws 7.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.8% (729 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 49.0% in Rapid (191 games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 242 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 7.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 729 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.8%, draws 7.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 936 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 26.3%, draws 17.6% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.2%. It rests on 160 Lichess games, which average 57 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 7.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 420 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.5%, draws 7.6% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.4%, draws 9.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 191 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.3% of its games and loses 49.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.