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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit

723 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score50.9%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 54.0%Based on 723 games
0%50.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 54.0%
Outcome Distribution
48.2%5.3%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
10...d5
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit
Analyzen=723
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a 50.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 54.0%), based on 723 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -3.1% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (9 games)
  • 1200-1399: 61.9% win rate (9 games)
  • 1400-1599: 35.6% win rate (28 games)
  • 1600-1799: 58.2% win rate (32 games)
  • 1800-1999: 57.3% win rate (111 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (195 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (249 games)
  • 2500+: 37.4% win rate (88 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (29%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.0% win rate (118 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (524 games)
  • Rapid: 44.4% win rate (74 games)
  • Classical: 29.4% win rate (7 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (180 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 43.4%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 723 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 47.6% win rate for white (195 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.9%) outperforms Bullet (41.4%) by 5.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a 40.4% (90% CI: 33.0%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 111 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 41.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 195 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 40.6%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 249 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a 41.4% (90% CI: 34.1%-48.9%) win rate for white (118 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 43.3%-50.5%) win rate for white (524 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense, Gajewski Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.4% (90% CI: 43.4%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.