58K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 56.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 56.0% and 56.7%), based on 58K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 62% → 21%
Best in Rapid (53%), worst in Classical (49%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 38.8% (90% CI: 38.4%-39.1%) win rate for white, based on 58K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.5% win rate for white (9.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (39.8%) outperforms Classical (33.9%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a sharpness score of 90.2 (decisive), meaning 90.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 30.0% (90% CI: 25.9%-34.2%) win rate for white, based on 330 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 35.9% (90% CI: 34.0%-37.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 35.9% (90% CI: 35.0%-36.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 38.6% (90% CI: 38.0%-39.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.7%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.6%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 18.5% (90% CI: 17.6%-19.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 55 moves with a 61.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 36.7% (90% CI: 36.0%-37.4%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.1%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 39.8% (90% CI: 39.4%-40.3%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 37.7% (90% CI: 36.8%-38.5%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.
In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 33.9% (90% CI: 30.1%-37.9%) win rate for white (395 Lichess games). Draw rate is 17.5%.
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line is slightly favors black with a 38.8% (90% CI: 38.4%-39.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.