Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line
58K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.7%.
Measured over 58K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 9.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 58K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 58K
- Best context
- 67.3% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 48.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 90.2%
- Draws
- 9.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.8% at 0-999, 52.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 72.1% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 68.4% expected score (208 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 68.7% expected score (100 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (705 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 63.3% expected score (935 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (126 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (1,623 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 62.0% expected score (4,348 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 67.3% expected score (588 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (49 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (2,784 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (11,819 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (2,317 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (144 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (3,136 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11,734 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (3,442 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (133 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,203 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (5,610 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (1,289 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (2,145 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,706 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (381 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (36 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line scores 56.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.0% and 56.7% — from 58K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 58K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line, Black wins 51.5%, draws 9.8% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 58K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 67.8% (330 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.1% in Blitz (36K games) against 57.6% in Rapid (8.2K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a sharpness score of 90.2 (decisive), meaning 90.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 65.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 30.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.8%. It rests on 330 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 60.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 35.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.5%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 60.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 35.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.2%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 56.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 38.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.0%, draws 7.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 20.5%, draws 61.0% and loses 18.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 55 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.3%, draws 14.1% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 52.0%, draws 8.2% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 52.9%, draws 9.5% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 48.5%, draws 17.5% and loses 33.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 395 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.5% of its games and loses 38.8%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.