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Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.9%Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 54.6%Based on 13K games
0%53.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 54.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.3%13.1%39.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Be6
Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line
Analyzen=13K
Avg Length43 moves
Sharpness87%
Draw Rate13.1%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 53.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 54.6%), based on 13K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · Blitz best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 21%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.7% win rate (12 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.8% win rate (26 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.9% win rate (103 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.8% win rate (289 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (1,163 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.9% win rate (2,770 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.3% win rate (3,663 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.5% win rate (3,499 games)
  • 2500+: 21.3% win rate (1,428 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (50%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (3,113 games)
  • Blitz: 46.7% win rate (7,820 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (1,797 games)
  • Classical: 41.4% win rate (222 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 65.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (87 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (201 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (798 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,976 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (443 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 68.4% expected score (648 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (576 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (1,245 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,850 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (346 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (589 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (632 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (189 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 39.6% (90% CI: 38.9%-40.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 43.6% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (42.5%) outperforms Classical (36.5%) by 6.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a sharpness score of 86.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 86.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 38.8% (90% CI: 31.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 103 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 42.9% (90% CI: 38.1%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 289 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 43.6% (90% CI: 41.2%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 41.4% (90% CI: 39.9%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 38.9% (90% CI: 37.6%-40.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 41.2% (90% CI: 39.9%-42.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 14.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 29.1% (90% CI: 27.2%-31.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 60 moves with a 49.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 34.4% (90% CI: 33.0%-35.8%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 17.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.5%-43.4%) win rate for white (7.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 36.2% (90% CI: 34.4%-38.1%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a 36.5% (90% CI: 31.2%-41.8%) win rate for white (222 Lichess games). Draw rate is 22.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line is slightly favors black with a 39.6% (90% CI: 38.9%-40.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.