Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line
13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.6%.
Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 13.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 13K
- Best context
- 68.4% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 43 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 86.9%
- Draws
- 13.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.3% at 0-999, 47.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 65.7% expected score (40 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (87 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (133 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (64 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (201 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (798 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (149 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (294 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,976 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (443 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (57 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 68.4% expected score (648 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,373 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (576 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (66 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (1,245 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,850 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (346 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (58 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (589 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (632 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (189 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line scores 53.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 54.6% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line, Black wins 47.3%, draws 13.1% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 13K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 57.2% (3.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.1% in Blitz (7.8K games) against 56.8% in Rapid (1.8K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line has a sharpness score of 86.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 86.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 57.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 103 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 289 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 53.3%, draws 7.8% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.5%, draws 14.3% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 50 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 21.3%, draws 49.6% and loses 29.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 60 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 17.9% and loses 34.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.7%, draws 10.8% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.7%, draws 14.0% and loses 36.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.4%, draws 22.1% and loses 36.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 222 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Main Line is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.3% of its games and loses 39.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.