Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation
41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.7%.
Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 41K
- Best context
- 56.1% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Worst context
- 44.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.5%
- Draws
- 5.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 39.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (61 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (48 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (176 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (272 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (49 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (399 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (793 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (230 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (780 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (1,749 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (604 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (859 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (3,505 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,313 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (100 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,251 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,928 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (2,158 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (174 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,457 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (7,062 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (1,964 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (106 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,632 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (5,592 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,128 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (778 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (705 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.3% expected score (39 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation scores 50.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.9% and 50.7% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation, Black wins 47.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 53.0% (5.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.9% in Blitz (26K games) against 53.3% in Rapid (7.5K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.4%, draws 0.4% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 122 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 498 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.6%, draws 10.2% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 47 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 47.1%, draws 11.1% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 428 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.5% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.