Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...a5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

41.4%

35%55%
Floor40.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.0%.

Measured over 17K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
17K
Best context
44.0% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
36.5% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.7% at 0-999, 44.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (472 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (598 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (1,389 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (665 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (1,752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (860 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (604 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (1,826 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (844 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.2% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (463 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (1,391 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (589 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.8% expected score (1,171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (419 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (316 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (215 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (316 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation scores 41.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 40.8% and 42.0% — from 17K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
17K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate?

Playing the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation, Black wins 39.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 42.5% (1.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 41.0% in Blitz (9.4K games) against 40.7% in Rapid (4.2K games).

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 40.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 39.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 39.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 39.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 38.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 38.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 38.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.3%, draws 6.4% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 583 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 38.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 37.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.7%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 30.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 63.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.7%. It rests on 207 Lichess games.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.2% of its games and loses 56.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.