Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense
8.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.5%.
Measured over 8.8K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 23.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.8K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 8.8K
- Best context
- 49.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 48 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 76.4%
- Draws
- 23.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 1000-1199, 43.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (46 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (128 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (90 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (729 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (111 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (255 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,789 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (253 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (467 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (2,010 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (269 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (1,277 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (936 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (254 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (44 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense scores 45.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.7% and 46.5% — from 8.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 8.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense, Black wins 33.8%, draws 23.6% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 8.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (939 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.2% in Blitz (5.6K games) against 44.3% in Rapid (916 games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 76.4 (drawish), meaning 76.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 48 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 195 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 8.5% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 939 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.5%, draws 8.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.8%, draws 12.2% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 15.0%, draws 57.8% and loses 27.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 66 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 24.9%, draws 39.3% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 37.8%, draws 16.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 31.3%, draws 25.9% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 916 Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 20.2%, draws 45.5% and loses 34.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 105 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Open, Classical Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 33.8% of its games and loses 42.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.