Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation
54K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.8%.
Measured over 54K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 54K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 54K
- Best context
- 48.8% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Worst context
- 38.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 44.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (163 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (102 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (529 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (554 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (131 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (989 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,676 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (402 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,604 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (3,970 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,020 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (42 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,957 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (7,829 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (2,247 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (119 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (2,026 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (10,201 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (3,527 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (183 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,438 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (5,995 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (2,488 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (103 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (912 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (2,211 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (810 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (327 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (299 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (37 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation scores 44.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.1% and 44.8% — from 54K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 54K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation, Black wins 41.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 54K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 45.9% (6.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.2% in Blitz (33K games) against 44.9% in Rapid (11K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 306 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.4%, draws 7.2% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 28.6%, draws 20.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 665 Lichess games, which average 53 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 36.6%, draws 10.4% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 473 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.8% of its games and loses 53.0%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.