Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation
27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.
Measured over 27K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 27K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 27K
- Best context
- 54.5% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.7% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.7% at 0-999, 51.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (81 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (107 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (227 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (461 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (126 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (454 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,164 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (370 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (518 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,795 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (733 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (36 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (538 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,208 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (1,100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (69 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,059 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (3,051 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,013 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (56 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,032 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (3,765 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (860 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,162 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (3,031 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (456 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (572 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (536 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation scores 50.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 50.6% — from 27K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 27K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate?
Playing the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 27K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation perform best?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 53.7% (2.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.4% in Blitz (16K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (4.7K games).
How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 234 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 816 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 45.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 45.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.
What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.6%, draws 7.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 199 Lichess games.
Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation a good opening?
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Mortimer Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.8% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.