Rubinstein Opening

5 variations · 253K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Rubinstein Opening gives White a 55.3% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 10.3%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating

Time

White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 55.5%Aggregated from 5 variations

0%55.3%100%

Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 55.5%

ContextOverall · n=253K

Outcome Distribution

53.1%4.4%42.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

5.b3

Rubinstein Opening

Variations5

Games (Context)253K

Avg Length35 moves

Draw Rate4.4%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Rubinstein Opening: Semi-Slav DefenseTop Pick

1.d4 d5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.e3 e6 4.Bd3 Bd6 5.O-O O-O 6.b3 Nbd7 7.Bb2

Min adv +15.1% · n=16K

58.3%

#2Rubinstein Opening

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 e6 3.e3 c5 4.Bd3 d5 5.b3

Min adv +9.6% · n=190K

54.9%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Rubinstein Opening family has a 55.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.2% and 55.5%), aggregated from 5 variations and 253K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (50%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999	—	—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (298 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (339 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (141 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (1,343 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,414 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (429 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (3,293 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (4,371 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,196 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (46 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (7,068 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (12,263 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (3,259 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (247 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (50 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (12,615 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (25,697 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (7,417 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (635 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (33 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (16,550 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (37,728 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (11,291 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (840 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (16,793 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (36,304 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (8,552 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (397 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (17,031 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (15,687 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (2,516 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (71 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (5,400 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (1,009 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (158 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (5)

Rubinstein Opening: Semi-Slav Defense16K games

Winning58.3%

Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense17K games

Winning56.5%

Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense28K games

Winning55.5%

Rubinstein Opening190K games

Winning54.9%

Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubov Defense729 games

Balanced53.8%

Analyze Rubinstein Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rubinstein Opening win rate?

The Rubinstein Opening family has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 5 variations and 253K rated games from Lichess.

How many Rubinstein Opening variations are there?

This analysis covers 5 Rubinstein Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Rubinstein Opening perform best?

The Rubinstein Opening family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (3.2K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Rubinstein Opening better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.0%) by 2.3% across all Rubinstein Opening variations.

How sharp is the Rubinstein Opening?

Rubinstein Opening games are 95.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Rubinstein Opening a good opening family?

The Rubinstein Opening family is statistically favors white overall with a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 5 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.