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Gambit Breakpoints

When do gambits stop working?

A gambit's breakpoint is the first rating where the games do not show it winning more than it loses.

Source LichessGambits 1076Covering 2023-12 to 2025-11Updated January 2026
Key Finding

149 of 1076 gambits pay at every rating we can see.

You play
Rating
Time
Sort
Total1076
White703
Black373
Pays Throughout149
Avg Peak+4.8%

Pays Throughout — ahead at every rating we can see · Avg Peak — each one’s best edge at worst over all clocks, averaged

Top Pick
1
Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Attack, Landau GambitWhite gambit · Pays at every rating we can see
+72.1%peak edge at worst
1076 GambitsPage 1 of 22
Page 1 of 22
How to read this

Every win, draw and loss here is counted from the gambit side, whichever side that is. A breakpoint is the first rating where the games do not show a gambit paying; 570 of these gambits pay again above theirs, so open one to see its whole ladder. With Time set, a breakpoint shown as a dash (—) means fewer than two ratings have enough games at that time control to tell whether, or where, a gambit falls short.

Peak is a gambit's highest Edge at worst across the ratings: how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident. It is green above zero.

Breakpoint colour:Pays at every rating we can seePays at some ratingsPays at no rating we can see

At what rating do chess gambits stop working?

Snapshot

Most have no single rating where they stop. Of 1076 gambits in Lichess games played December 2023 to November 2025, 59 pay at lower ratings then stop, 570 pay at some ratings only, 149 pay at every rating we can see, and 298 never show paying. Paying means the gambit side wins more than it loses, 90% confident.

Check Gambit Lines in Your GamesSee if a gambit holds up move by move at your level

Methodology

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.1B+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a gambit breakpoint?

The first rating band where the games do not show the gambit paying: where we cannot say, with 90% confidence, that the side giving up material wins more often than it loses. A gambit can fall short at one band and pay again above it.

Do gambits stop working at higher ratings?

Not as a rule. 59 of the 1076 gambits here pay at lower ratings and stop higher up. 570 pay at some ratings but not others, including ratings above the first one where they fall short. 149 keep paying at every rating we can see, and 298 never show paying at any rating.

How many gambits are analyzed?

This analysis covers 1076 gambit openings from Lichess. At each of the 9 rating brackets (0-999 to 2500+), it reads how far the gambit side’s wins run ahead of its losses, 90% confident.

Should I stop playing gambits above the breakpoint?

Not necessarily. 570 of the 1076 pay again at some rating above their breakpoint, and falling short of proof is not the same as losing. Set Rating and Time on the list to yours to see each gambit's figures there.