33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 59.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 59.4% and 60.3%), based on 33K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 44% → 52%
Best in Classical (62%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 58.1% (90% CI: 57.7%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.
The Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 61.2% win rate for white (4.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (61.9%) outperforms Classical (62.0%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 43.6% (90% CI: 36.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.3%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 169 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 57.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-61.6%) win rate for white, based on 377 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 58.2% (90% CI: 55.6%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 61.2% (90% CI: 60.0%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 60.3% (90% CI: 59.5%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.0%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 48.5%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 557 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.2%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 58.4% (90% CI: 57.9%-59.0%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit has a 61.9% (90% CI: 60.3%-63.5%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
The Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit is statistically favors white with a 58.1% (90% CI: 57.7%-58.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.