Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
518K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.
Measured over 518K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 518K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 518K
- Best context
- 51.1% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.2% at 0-999, 35.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,893 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (3,292 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (942 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (34 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (5,085 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (6,797 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (2,028 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.8% expected score (31 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (76 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (9,760 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (14,993 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (3,729 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (127 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (170 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (17,760 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (30,606 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (7,579 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (393 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (245 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (27,639 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (49,279 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (12,830 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (773 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (58 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (33,565 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (67,086 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (16,866 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (1,057 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (37,468 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (65,215 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (11,644 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (460 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 69.2% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (33,128 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (39,954 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (3,698 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (77 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (7,653 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (3,852 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (161 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.4% and 48.6% — from 518K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 518K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 518K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (57K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.2% in Blitz (281K games) against 47.7% in Rapid (59K games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 91K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 119K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 115K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 77K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.1%, draws 10.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 1.3% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 640 Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 174K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 281K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 59K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.2%, draws 8.2% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 49.1%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.