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Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation

181K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 48.0%Based on 181K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.9%5.7%49.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bd6
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation
Analyzen=181K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 47.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 48.0%), based on 181K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.5% win rate (50 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.8% win rate (276 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.2% win rate (1,001 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (3,421 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (10,416 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.6% win rate (30,432 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (58,597 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (62,950 games)
  • 2500+: 39.3% win rate (13,452 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in UltraBullet (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 36.3% win rate (99 games)
  • Bullet: 45.0% win rate (89,815 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (83,234 games)
  • Rapid: 44.4% win rate (7,096 games)
  • Classical: 36.7% win rate (351 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (156 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (557 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (358 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (81 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,680 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,506 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (205 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,817 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (4,929 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (597 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (11,492 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (16,936 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,848 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (23,274 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (32,510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (2,666 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (133 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (36,298 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (25,036 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,580 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (11,518 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (1,850 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (83 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 181K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (59.2%) outperforms Classical (50.6%) by 8.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 39.6%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 276 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.2%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.7%) win rate for white (90K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white (83K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.4%) win rate for white (7.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-55.0%) win rate for white (351 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.6%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.