Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack
397K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.1%.
Measured over 397K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 397K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 397K
- Best context
- 61.6% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Worst context
- 53.7% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.0% at 0-999, 58.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (1,156 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (2,061 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,246 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (27 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (2,431 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (3,647 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (1,247 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (44 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (69 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (5,392 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (8,198 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (2,226 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (101 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (222 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (12,181 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (18,414 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (4,440 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 66.8% expected score (252 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (304 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (24,898 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (38,309 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (7,910 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (451 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (209 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (34,186 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (61,077 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (11,993 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (717 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (47 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (30,711 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (54,286 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (8,903 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (326 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (21,986 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (27,485 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (2,846 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.2% expected score (54 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (4,872 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (2,349 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (86 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack scores 56.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.8% and 56.1% — from 397K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 397K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack, White wins 54.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 397K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 57.6% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.3% in Blitz (216K games) against 57.7% in Rapid (41K games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack?
The Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 53.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 56.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 56.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 55.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 108K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.6%, draws 13.0% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 55.5%, draws 1.4% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 914 Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 138K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 216K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 55.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 56.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.0% of its games and loses 42.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.