Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
797K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.2%.
Measured over 797K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 797K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 797K
- Best context
- 58.6% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 49.7% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 53.9%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (39 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (7,336 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (15,402 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (6,511 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (70 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (77 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,657 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (25,743 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (9,802 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (201 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (148 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (23,414 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (43,161 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (14,903 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (514 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (309 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (32,704 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (67,969 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (20,985 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (1,058 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (288 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (42,299 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (91,457 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (25,161 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (1,217 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (262 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (46,886 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (89,363 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (21,962 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (998 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (121 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (44,326 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (60,560 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (10,780 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (344 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (34,554 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (27,899 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (2,845 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (8,012 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (2,713 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.2% expected score (80 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation scores 53.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.2% — from 797K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 797K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 797K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.0% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.4% in Blitz (424K games) against 54.1% in Rapid (113K games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 82K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 160K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 159K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 55.9%, draws 1.3% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 254K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 424K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 113K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.2% of its games and loses 45.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.