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Dutch Defense

56 variations · 11M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

48.3%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 11M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#29 of 62
Games in this context
11M
Best context
50.4% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
39.6% at 2200-2499 Classical
Variations measured
56
Average game length
34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Dutch Defense: Bladel VariationBest here
1.d4 f5 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Nh6
Floor 51.3% · 3.1K games
52.8%
#2Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Huisl Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6 3.g3 e6 4.Bg2 Be7 5.Nf3 O-O 6.O-O d6 7.Nc3 Ne4
Floor 50.2% · 32K games
50.7%
#3Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Matulovic Variation
1.d4 f5 2.g3 Nf6 3.Bg2 g6 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.O-O O-O 6.c4 d6 7.Nc3 Nc6
Floor 50.0% · 58K games
50.3%
#4Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6
Floor 49.7% · 530K games
49.8%
#5Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation
1.d4 f5 2.e4 fxe4 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.Bg5 c6
Floor 49.1% · 10K games
49.9%
#6Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 e6
Floor 48.4% · 518K games
48.5%
#7Dutch Defense
1.d4 f5
Floor 48.2% · 4.6M games
48.3%
#8Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation
1.d4 f5 2.g3 Nf6 3.Bg2 g6 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.O-O O-O 6.c4 d6 7.Nc3 c6
Floor 47.9% · 84K games
48.2%
#9Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6 3.g3 e6 4.Bg2 Be7 5.Nf3 O-O 6.O-O d6 7.Nc3 a5
Floor 47.8% · 9.8K games
48.6%
#10Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6 3.g3 d6 4.Bg2 c6 5.Nc3 Qc7
Floor 47.7% · 586 games
51.0%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.5% at 0-999, 42.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (450 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (70,589 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (138,434 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (57,568 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (636 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (986 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (158,973 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (237,635 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (86,938 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (1,810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (2,201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (289,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (425,942 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (133,802 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (4,774 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (5,135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (466,966 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (761,326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (199,327 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (10,629 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (5,792 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (693,024 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,174,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (268,973 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (13,735 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (3,612 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (826,130 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,401,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (293,664 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (12,931 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (1,448 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (764,944 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (986,425 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (156,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (4,553 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (398 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (562,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (441,565 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (40,833 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (661 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (124,035 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (35,625 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (1,343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (45 games)

56 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, American Attack680 games
54.7%Floor 51.6%
2
Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation3.1K games
52.8%Floor 51.3%
3
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation871K games
50.3%Floor 50.2%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Huisl Variation32K games
50.7%Floor 50.2%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Matulovic Variation58K games
50.3%Floor 50.0%
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation34K games
50.4%Floor 50.0%
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation1.7M games
49.9%Floor 49.8%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation530K games
49.8%Floor 49.7%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line4.6K games
50.3%Floor 49.1%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation10K games
49.9%Floor 49.1%
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall3.8K games
50.1%Floor 48.7%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation518K games
48.5%Floor 48.4%
Dutch Defense: Korchnoi Attack44K games
48.7%Floor 48.3%
Dutch Defense4.6M games
48.3%Floor 48.2%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation84K games
48.2%Floor 47.9%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation9.8K games
48.6%Floor 47.8%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit20K games
48.3%Floor 47.7%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation56K games
48.0%Floor 47.7%
Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System586 games
51.0%Floor 47.7%
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation181K games
47.8%Floor 47.6%
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation90K games
47.7%Floor 47.5%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit Accepted163K games
47.6%Floor 47.4%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation2.7K games
48.9%Floor 47.3%
Dutch Defense: Krejcik Gambit, Tate Gambit584 games
50.7%Floor 47.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation6.9K games
48.1%Floor 47.1%
Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation49K games
47.3%Floor 47.0%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation797K games
46.9%Floor 46.8%
Dutch Defense: Krejcik Gambit48K games
46.9%Floor 46.5%
Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Attack121K games
46.6%Floor 46.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line3.4K games
47.6%Floor 46.2%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation9.4K games
46.8%Floor 45.9%
Dutch Defense: Krause Variation9.5K games
46.6%Floor 45.8%
Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation16K games
46.2%Floor 45.5%
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation1.9K games
47.2%Floor 45.4%
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation26K games
45.6%Floor 45.1%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation4.1K games
46.3%Floor 45.0%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack6.9K games
45.9%Floor 44.9%
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation2.5K games
46.6%Floor 44.9%
Dutch Defense: Spielmann Gambit2.7K games
46.3%Floor 44.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation12K games
45.2%Floor 44.5%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation420 games
48.0%Floor 44.0%
Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack397K games
44.1%Floor 43.9%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Alekhine Variation4.6K games
45.0%Floor 43.8%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Lasker Variation7.9K games
44.6%Floor 43.7%
Dutch Defense: Senechaud Gambit1.9K games
45.5%Floor 43.7%
Dutch Defense: Hevendehl Gambit162 games
50.0%Floor 43.6%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit71K games
43.8%Floor 43.5%
Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit6.1K games
44.4%Floor 43.4%
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line5.2K games
44.4%Floor 43.3%
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern3.0K games
44.7%Floor 43.2%
Every Dutch Defense variation, by name56
Analyze Dutch Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense family scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 48.3% — from 11M Lichess games across 56 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
11M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense win rate?

Across the Dutch Defense's 56 variations, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 11M rated games from Lichess.

How many Dutch Defense variations are there?

56 Dutch Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense perform best?

The Dutch Defense family performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (2.2M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Dutch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Dutch Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (5.6M games) against 47.3% in Rapid (1.2M games).

How sharp is the Dutch Defense?

Dutch Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Dutch Defense a good opening family?

The Dutch Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.2% and loses 49.7%. Results differ between its 56 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.