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Dutch Defense

56 variations · 11M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Dutch Defense is balanced for Black at 48.3% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.3%Aggregated from 56 variations
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.3%
ContextOverall · n=11M
Outcome Distribution
46.2%4.1%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.c4
Dutch Defense
Variations56
Games (Context)11M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate4.1%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

#1Dutch Defense: Bladel VariationTop Pick
1.d4 f5 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Nh6
Min adv +2.5% · n=3.1K
52.8%
#2Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Huisl Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6 3.g3 e6 4.Bg2 Be7 5.Nf3 O-O 6.O-O d6 7.Nc3 Ne4
Min adv +0.3% · n=32K
50.7%
#3Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Matulovic Variation
1.d4 f5 2.g3 Nf6 3.Bg2 g6 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.O-O O-O 6.c4 d6 7.Nc3 Nc6
Min adv 0.0% · n=58K
50.3%
#4Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6
Min adv -0.6% · n=530K
49.8%
#5Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation
1.d4 f5 2.e4 fxe4 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.Bg5 c6
Min adv -1.9% · n=10K
49.9%
#6Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 e6
Min adv -3.2% · n=518K
48.5%
#7Dutch Defense
1.d4 f5
Min adv -3.6% · n=4.6M
48.3%
#8Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation
1.d4 f5 2.g3 Nf6 3.Bg2 g6 4.Nf3 Bg7 5.O-O O-O 6.c4 d6 7.Nc3 c6
Min adv -4.3% · n=84K
48.2%
#9Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6 3.g3 e6 4.Bg2 Be7 5.Nf3 O-O 6.O-O d6 7.Nc3 a5
Min adv -4.4% · n=9.8K
48.6%
#10Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System
1.d4 f5 2.c4 Nf6 3.g3 d6 4.Bg2 c6 5.Nc3 Qc7
Min adv -4.7% · n=586
51.0%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Dutch Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

Overall, the Dutch Defense family has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 48.3%), aggregated from 56 variations and 11M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.7% win rate (267,677 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.5% win rate (486,342 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (855,797 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.4% win rate (1,443,383 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (2,155,820 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (2,537,837 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (1,913,920 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.4% win rate (1,046,254 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (161,171 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.5% win rate (20,145 games)
  • Bullet: 47.6% win rate (3,956,536 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (5,602,748 games)
  • Rapid: 44.8% win rate (1,238,998 games)
  • Classical: 43.6% win rate (49,774 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (450 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (70,589 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (138,434 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (57,568 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (636 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (986 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (158,973 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (237,635 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (86,938 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (1,810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (2,201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (289,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (425,942 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (133,802 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (4,774 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (5,135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (466,966 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (761,326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (199,327 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (10,629 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (5,792 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (693,024 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,174,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (268,973 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (13,735 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (3,612 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (826,130 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,401,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (293,664 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (12,931 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (1,448 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (764,944 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (986,425 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (156,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (4,553 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (398 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (562,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (441,565 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (40,833 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (661 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (124,035 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (35,625 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (1,343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (45 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (56)

1
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, American Attack680 games
54.7%
2
Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation3.1K games
52.8%
3
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation871K games
50.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Huisl Variation32K games
50.7%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Matulovic Variation58K games
50.3%
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation34K games
50.4%
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation1.7M games
49.9%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation530K games
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line4.6K games
50.3%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation10K games
49.9%
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall3.8K games
50.1%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation518K games
48.5%
Dutch Defense: Korchnoi Attack44K games
48.7%
Dutch Defense4.6M games
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation84K games
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation9.8K games
48.6%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit20K games
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation56K games
48.0%
Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System586 games
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation181K games
47.8%
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation90K games
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit Accepted163K games
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation2.7K games
48.9%
Dutch Defense: Krejcik Gambit, Tate Gambit584 games
50.7%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation6.9K games
48.1%
Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation49K games
47.3%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation797K games
46.9%
Dutch Defense: Krejcik Gambit48K games
46.9%
Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Attack121K games
46.6%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line3.4K games
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation9.4K games
46.8%
Dutch Defense: Krause Variation9.5K games
46.6%
Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation16K games
46.2%
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation1.9K games
47.2%
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation26K games
45.6%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation4.1K games
46.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack6.9K games
45.9%
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation2.5K games
46.6%
Dutch Defense: Spielmann Gambit2.7K games
46.3%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation12K games
45.2%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation420 games
48.0%
Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack397K games
44.1%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Alekhine Variation4.6K games
45.0%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Lasker Variation7.9K games
44.6%
Dutch Defense: Senechaud Gambit1.9K games
45.5%
Dutch Defense: Hevendehl Gambit162 games
50.0%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit71K games
43.8%
Dutch Defense: Kingfisher Gambit6.1K games
44.4%
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line5.2K games
44.4%
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern3.0K games
44.7%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Tartakower Variation3.2K games
44.5%
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Leningrad1.1K games
45.4%
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit212K games
42.7%
Dutch Defense: Omega-Isis Gambit11K games
42.0%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation308 games
45.5%
Dutch Defense: Janzen-Korchnoi Gambit33K games
40.3%
Analyze Dutch Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense win rate?

The Dutch Defense family has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.7%) win rate for white, aggregated from 56 variations and 11M rated games from Lichess.

How many Dutch Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 56 Dutch Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense perform best?

The Dutch Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (161K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Dutch Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (52.2%) outperforms Bullet (49.3%) by 2.9% across all Dutch Defense variations.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense?

Dutch Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Dutch Defense a good opening family?

The Dutch Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.7%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 56 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.