Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation
3.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 3.1K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.1K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.1K
- Best context
- 58.7% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 50.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.9% at 0-999, 56.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (72 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.8% expected score (40 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (110 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (157 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (584 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (553 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (310 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (513 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (260 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (118 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (88 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation scores 52.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 54.3% — from 3.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation, Black wins 50.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 3.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 56.2% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.3% in Blitz (1.3K games) against 47.7% in Rapid (148 games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.5%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 129 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 241 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 54.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 846 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 382 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 148 Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.9% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.