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Analyzer

Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation

3.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 48.8%Based on 3.1K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 48.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%3.7%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nh6
Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation
Analyzen=3.1K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 47.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 48.8%), based on 3.1K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.7% win rate (78 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.6% win rate (48 games)
  • 1200-1399: 64.1% win rate (57 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.6% win rate (129 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.9% win rate (241 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.8% win rate (1,233 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.7% win rate (846 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.3% win rate (382 games)
  • 2500+: 53.6% win rate (89 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 45.2% win rate (1,659 games)
  • Blitz: 45.0% win rate (1,285 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (148 games)
  • Classical: 53.8% win rate (5 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (72 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 75.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (157 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (584 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (310 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (513 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (260 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (118 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 64.1% win rate for white (57 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.2%) outperforms Rapid (49.2%) by -4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 38.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 129 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 38.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 241 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 39.5%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 43.9%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 846 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 43.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 382 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-47.2%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 42.8%-47.3%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 42.5%-55.9%) win rate for white (148 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.